Early 2024 Prediction:

No Biden, No Trump

The pre-mid-term prediction market has been fully open for months now, but can we be sure that past models will accurately capture the extreme events, opinions, and government dysfunction our country has sustained over the last few years?  Also, let’s not forget the surprising disconnect between recent presidential races compared with down-ballot races.   With all the talk of third parties and serious problems in both major parties, no one knows what will happen.  While the predictions market is trickier than ever, one scenario I don’t see happening is a replay of the 2020 presidential election.

Who would want Joe Biden or Donald Trump on the ballot in 2024? We’ve seen both movies already.  Wonder what the poll results would be if the question was a straight-up, “do you want to see four more years of that?” Suspect that the yes responses would be 15% or so because both won the office of the president by being the lesser of the evil represented by their major party opponent.  The “rematch” talk is just a distracting fund-raiser for both parties and a source of revenue for talking head channels.

Demographics Versus Dysfunction

It is very unlikely that Donald Trump would win enough delegates in the primaries due to shifts in demographics and voter alignment.  According to Gallup, the growing Hispanic population, now about 19% of the US population, is up from 13% in 2020. Various polls show a trend of this important voting population leaving the Democratic Party for the Republicans, but the magnitude of the shift is difficult to pinpoint. Suffice it to speculate that Hispanic voters are shifting away from Democrats versus being drawn to the GOP. Republicans could kill this surge by nominating Donald Trump.

After November’s mid-terms, or perhaps after this week’s primaries, Republican candidates will have room to move further away from Donald Trump. Trump’s influence appears to be exaggerated and self-centered. Mr. Trump is said to endorse candidates already favored to win. The resulting media feature Donald Trump himself, boosting his brand awareness. In some instances, Republicans like Ted Cruz and Mike Pence endorse candidates that oppose the Trump picks. 

In a Trump-Biden rematch the Democratic National Committee would have opposition research that make the Billy Bush tape look pathetic. And the opposition research is free because most of it involves things Mr. Trump has done in the public eye. Who doesn’t cringe at the overt narcissism of a president who delighted in telling people which governors were saying some nice things about him or beaming like a kindergartner being named “Student of the week” when it was suggested he get a Nobel Peace Prize for opening the door with North Korea?

Finally, despite the low approval ratings of President Biden, Donald Trump has never expanded his base of support.  It is unknown if the high voter turnout of 2020 netting Donald Trump some 70 million votes could be replicated.  Where would a Trump candidacy go for additional voters?  Nothing on the horizon suggests there are voter blocs that regret not backing him in 2020. Absent a broader appeal, another Trump candidacy is doomed.

Thank You, Now Leave

The man who provided the country a station off the Trump Train is the same man with depressing approval ratings. There are as many theories about Mr. Biden’s low ratings as there are pundits, among them people puzzled about the new definition of recession.

The Democratic Party needs to thank Joe Biden for his service, make him the revered party elder, and set into motion a vigorous primary season to showcase their few potential candidates.  Think Elizabeth Warren, Joe Manchin, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy, or Roy Cooper perhaps. Not Pete Buttigieg as his thin resume will be enough to chill support and certainly not Gavin Newsom whose political skills are overshadowed by the mass exodus from California.

In any case, the ploy of organizing around a single candidate and dismissing challengers a la 2016 and 2020 won’t work in 2024. The “Vote Blue No Matter Who” moment has come and gone as voters want to react to the track record they’ve witnessed. If polls are to be believed, voters don’t like what the Democrats have delivered, their growing far-left wing scares people, and some of the extreme and unnecessary culture wars have alienated way too many.

Few can imagine Joe Biden enduring a vigorous, multi-month campaign schedule. Occasional, edited videos from his home will not cut it in a post-pandemic world. Unless the Republicans self-destruct (always a real possibility), voters will be looking for a reasonable candidate with enough vigor to lead for four years, and the GOP bench is strong in that regard.

Questions around the president’s age and health also make the vice president candidate even more important. Vice President Kamala Harris faces almost insurmountable odds waging a believable “ready to lead” campaign. President Biden switching running mates most likely runs the risk of breaking a significant 2020 promise.

In short, there is not enough in Joe Biden’s track record to compel a second term, and enough worry about his age and health to make another choice.

So What About January 6th?

Unless there are new revelations, the attack on the capitol will not be a factor in 2024 presidential politics. Donald Trump will either be indicted or not indicted by that time. There will either be a trial underway, or the case adjudicated by that time. In either case, outside forces do what the Republican hierarchy seemingly cannot do – thank Mr. Trump for his service and send him on his way.

As of this writing, it doesn’t appear that indictment(s) against President Trump will be forthcoming. Even the compromised “legal analyst” who invented a case for manslaughter against the former president has lowered their sights. However, law and politics often take unexpected turns, and if justice demands a trial and conviction, it will only be a sideshow given the other factors in the 2024 race, i.e., a convicted and (further) disgraced Donald Trump won’t send Joe Biden to a second term.

Most likely the January 6th investigation will end as the Mueller story played out. It will be mentioned less often than the fictitious voter suppression stories and the endless stream of “we’ve got him now” scandal reports.

A Way Forward

The populist demands for a society and economy that provides safe neighborhoods, good policing, equal justice, and opportunity for all to improve their standing has not gone away.

Consider: If such a set of populist demands can give us Donald Trump, can those unmet demands get the entrenched parties to grow up and govern?

It’s an insular world of “inside the Beltway” and a few other loud locales – think New York and Los Angeles for shorthand – but the fact is, this is a broad country that is hungry for leadership and wants action. Citizens want a government and media system that reflects the industriousness, generosity, and kindness of the vast majority of Americans.

The rumblings for viable third parties, new voting systems such as ranked choice, and ideas to modify congressional makeup such as proportional representation all indicate an electorate demanding meaningful change. Which means those determined to use a playbook from yesteryear are doomed to fail.

Onward.