How to Eat an Elephant & Hobble a Donkey

After the Midterms of 2022

The Republican Party lost big as they took narrow control of the  U.S. House of Representatives.  So, this short editorial rinse of the 2022 Midterms-- one person’s opinion, with some snark that could not be contained, including the first sentence. And some serious analysis as well:

The extremes are crumbling, abortion referendums showed strength of The Constitution, and 2024 and indictments loom ahead.

The first takeaway is that Republican leadership discovered their dual-pronged strategy of forgoing policy discussions in favor of staring like a deer in the headlights, coupled with wishful thinking that the narcissistic Donald Trump would just go away without them pushing him over was a loser.

Democrats discovered that the way to eat an elephant is . . .one bite at a time. Methodically working the new voting mechanisms, picking off one race at a time, and investing in weaker, nutjob candidates in the Republican primaries. All the while convincing their tribal followers that Democracy would return if the Democratic party pretty much won the mid-terms—as they noted loudly that the same process with different results would mean Democracy is over.

Over on Twitter, from some lost corner of Hollywood, Director Rob Reiner decides not to go, “Full Kenosha” to fight off the MAGA rioters post-election. In a Delaware bunker, President Joe Biden mulls a follow-up to his push to eradicate thought criminals in the MAGA ranks.

The same two pieces of advice prevail. Democrats still need to tone down the gas-lighting and fearmongering, and the Republicans need to find some spine and kick Trump to the curb. I’m getting tired of writing about this, but the emotion-charged approach by the Dems just leads to screaming breakdowns if things don’t go their way, and Mr. Trump is clearly as helpful as a boat anchor for a distance swimmer.

There are however, green shoots of returning to normal. Yep, back to losing candidates blaming their political parties and the political parties blaming the candidates. No one can argue that is more normal than blaming the election systems.

EXTREMES ARE CRUMBLING

Looks like Governors, house seats and as many as 45 of those questioning the results of the 2020 election lost their races. Seems that having an endorsement by Donald Trump as one’s chief asset isn’t all that valuable. Election deniers of 2016 and 2018 have also turned over a new leaf, quickly conceding in the time-honored old style.

People don’t like the other polar opposite either. Four of the nine members of the January 6th Committee lost their seats or read the polls and bowed out. And of those remaining, one is California’s Mr. Adam Schiff, whose misguided voters still apparently believe he has seen super-secret Russian collusion information with his own eyes. Kinda believable when one considers overactive thyroid eye.

Also returning to the scene is Maryland’s Jamie Raskin, who co-authored a letter questioning support to Ukraine, then withdrew it under pressure that it looked too much like a Republican position. At least unlike past elections, Raskin did not advocate a vote against certifying results.

Another extreme candidate, Colorado’s Republican Lauren Boebert won her seat by the narrowest of margins, pending a recount. Boebert brings the caricature of Republicans to life, thinking her constituents are enamored with her automatic rifle. She needs to go watch “Red Dawn” and remember it’s just a movie.  Boebert’s close call or ultimate loss  perhaps means the period of trying to see who can out-crazy Donald Trump may be passing?

Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez has defeated Joe Kent, a far-right Republican endorsed by former President Trump, in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.  It’s been 12 years since a Democrat held that seat.

Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire all lost Senate bids. Again, the takeaway is that if your sole qualification is that Donald Trump says he likes you, it may not bode well. Trump himself can’t figure out why if he likes someone or something, why everyone else doesn’t like it too. Side note - Oz called John Fetterman to concede. A better man would have emailed the concession so that the winner could process the message, or called Gisele Fetterman, who is pretty much being treated as the Senator-elect.

POLAR EXTREMES ALSO REWARDED

Governors in Illinois, Maryland, and Pennsylvania benefited from Democratic-aligned groups pouring millions into Trump-backed candidates. Including backing a QAnon guy in Maryland. The investment in radical, democracy-threatening candidates by his own party “made no difference” according to the Maryland’s Governor Elect, Wes Moore. Really? Maybe, probably, whatever, so why did you do it?

Herschel Walker, won so much vote that there will be a runoff election in Georgia. Walker claims he is best, because he has experience and because he could both run off-tackle and runoff from his offspring. Without Brian Kemp’s coattails, Senator Warnock will likely win Georgia handily.

Peter Meijer in Michigan’s 3rd district, who voted to impeach Donald Trump, lost a Republican Primary to John Gibbs. Gibbs, a man who was endorsed by Mr. Trump, thinks the 2020 election was rigged, and was said to have once suggested allowing women to vote was hurting the country.  He was also bankrolled by Democrats; you know, the guys fighting for Democracy with a president who claims MAGA must be exterminated.  But hey, the investment paid off as Democrat Hillary Scholten won the general election and will be the first Democrat representing Grand Rapids in almost 50 years. Gibbs promptly questioned the election integrity.

Guess what a working media would have asked of the Democrats? “Why didn’t you put primary money behind Peter Meijer and show him as someone standing up against his own party?” Hmmmm?

Given the situation in Grand Rapids, it’s no surprise that Democrats backed an ethically challenged governor with authoritarian instincts in Michigan. Ignored her COVID disasters, never asked about her science claims, and ignored her ethics. And now Cult Blue sends Governor Whitmer back to office because of four things.

1.     The top two Republican challengers hosed their petition signature gathering and were denied ballot access by law.

2.     A massive spending advantage over Tudor Dixon.

3.     The lack of a mildly curious media system that would have asked about pandemic policies.

4.     Debates that were hidden from view and very late in the cycle-- where the Governor again displayed her elitist bona fides by scoffing about the time children were denied an education.

The Democrat wave didn’t stop in Lansing. Grossly incompetent governors were re-elected in New York, Minnesota and Oregon. All three successfully beat back the narrative on crime, reasoning that Democrats made it known that only a wing of their party is anti-police. Democrats don’t want anyone to be committing crimes. Just because violent individuals are released with no bail or charged with lesser crime, some may commit more crimes, but Democrats definitely do not want that at all. Just like certain politicians on the right don’t want troubled 18-year-olds to blast innocents with semiautomatic rifles but make no moves to restrict such sales. So, if there is a way to get antisocial people to comply with a law-abiding society, we should be seeing it soon.

In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis led a near-perfect result for Republicans, simultaneously striking fear into the hearts of potential Democratic National Contenders and Donald Trump. With the DNC and Trump on the same page, can’t tell if that is unity or more division.

After what seemed to be an endless counting process in Arizona, Democrat Katie Hobbs wins the governor’s race over Republican Kari Lake. Lake immediately blasts the process, noting that not only did Hobbs refuse to debate her during the election but that the Democrats hold a near perfect win record when vote tallies stretch on for days. Lake apparently denied news from Colorado (see Boebert).

ABORTION REFERENDUMS

As forecast, limiting restrictions on abortion or enshrining access to abortion in state constitutions passed. The results exceeded performance of even partisan advocates, showing that there is consensus on the issue. Indeed, the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg thought that Roe was the wrong case for the matter, and conservative Justices have always said the issue belongs to the states. Thus, our Constitution is working--i.e., the course correction is complete.

VOTING ANALYSIS

Voting is no longer a single event. The single-day strategy of getting people to the polls is over.

Congratulations and appreciation to reporters bringing statistics on how people voted, e.g., mail-in, absentee, early, in-person, and so forth. Who is voting, when they vote and how they vote need to be baked in to polling and election night coverage of returns. I’ve been harsh on CNN for their tilted coverage and skeptical about them returning to reporting news, but they did a very balanced job on election coverage.

Youth turnout was in its normal range of 11% to 13% of the electorate, coming in at 12%. A greater percentage of youth – those between 18 and 29 – made their voices heard at the polls with ~27% voting. And according to exit polls (notoriously inaccurate) broke heavily for the Democrats.

As of this writing, Republicans have captured 51.7% of votes for the house versus 46.8% for Democrats, A great graphic at Cook Political Report is here - https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022 . Drill down and note the number of districts that are overwhelmingly either Republican or Democrat.

Finally, now that the truth about Georgia’s voting laws have been revealed, can those who called the state, ‘Jim Crow 2.0’ please apologize. And Major League Baseball; at least give Atlanta their fair shot at hosting the All-Star game again.

VOTES AREN’T ALWAYS ON BALLOTS

Making voting easy and more accessible is something everyone should want. There are other types of votes, beside the ballot box. Consider the hours one might need to register, obtain a ballot, and cast one’s vote. Now compare the ease of voting with uprooting one’s residence, moving possessions, re-establishing life elsewhere. It’s known as immigration, or “voting with your feet” and it is much more difficult. That’s why our borders are bulging with people fleeing from places where power is consolidated, economic opportunities choked off, housing is unaffordable, and privacy violated. . .

Such a comparison might be instructive for California, New York, Illinois and other states who are draining population to places like Florida, Texas, and Idaho.

Indeed, Oregon’s Morrow and Wheeler Counties just voted to leave Oregon and join Idaho. If you read this and find yourself dismissing these facts because “those people are so dumb,” consider that now makes 9 Oregon counties who have cast votes to join Idaho. The counties represent two-thirds of Oregon’s land mass and 10% of its population.

LOOKING AHEAD

Donald Trump’s upcoming indictment or non-indictment or conviction or non-conviction loom over the political landscape. Politically, it’s advantageous to the Democratic Party to have Trump around as an evil to be voted against, so an indictment that derails Trump removes him from being the phantom of the next election cycle. In a similar vein, its advantageous to the Republican Party to have Trump removed, and the GOP has shown it doesn’t have the spine to show him the door themselves. Thus, an indictment, with or without conviction, serves Republicans by getting their biggest negative out of the public discussion.

Merrick Garland has the toughest job in the world right now. No matter what he does, it is going to be processed through a political lens. And for those who think that President Biden doesn’t signal his desires, I have a Chinese mutual fund for you. The worst outcome for all of us is if there is an indictment(s) and no meaningful conviction(s) result.

To serve justice, there should be prosecution for all crimes and if convicted, a suitable punishment. The conviction-by-media and the one-sided January 6th Committee cause partisans to think the result of an indictment is a foregone conclusion. However, after cross-examination and affirmative defenses, with the defendant facing his accusers, the results may not be so crystal clear. I’m not making a forecast on the outcome, other than to say it’s uncertain. If it was up to me, Mr. Trump would just be exiled to a nice island some place. 

The 2024 election cycle will have Democratic governors in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania while the Republicans will hold the governor’s chair in Georgia, Ohio, and Nevada.

By 2024, the number of Baby Boomers will decline due to mortality, as more Gen Z becomes eligible to vote. Smart political parties will understand this.

BACK TO WORK, GOVERNMENT AND THE MEDIA

As most of the dust settles around the 2022 midterm election, it’s time for our elected representatives to get down to business. Off to a running start, President Biden confuses Cambodia and Columbia. Different continents, different ethnicities, different languages but both start with “c” and end with “ia” so clearly no one briefed the president on the specifics.

Former President Trump declares himself a candidate for the presidency in 2024. The scene had all the suspense of a baby playing peek-a-boo. Who really cares? Trump will be Trump, but in the end, he won’t have the GOP nomination. Repeating the same speech that appealed to fed-up voters in 2016 is no match for the display of unfitness for the office and the January 2021 temper tantrums we all witnessed.

The GOP’s narrow win of the US House of Representatives is already being heralded as an enormous threat to Democracy, and a barrier to anything good that may have passed. No established media will ask why the somethings-good weren’t passed when the Democrats had control of the House. Meanwhile, with the Speaker of the House vote in doubt, staffers have suggested that the matter be settled by a contest to see who can tear up the State of the Union Address the fastest.

Speaking of raising the alarm, the Democratic Party has established the “Congressional Integrity Project Initiative” which is an all-out, pre-emptive smear machine to harass the Repubican majority in the House. You can read all about it here in this link:

 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/16/democratic-strategists-launch-war-room-00065498

After years of endless investigations, the next two years will feature a lot of hysterics about why Congressional investigations are bad. Apparently, Jerry Nadler’s (D-NY) commitment to impeachment before a presidential election was even certified is a good thing, Rashida Tlaib’s (D-MI) foul-mouthed rant was the epitome of Democracy but looking into “10% for the Big Guy” is immoral.

The student debt relief plan offered by President Biden is deemed unconstitutional. So back to square one with multi-billion-dollar endowments at universities and debt-burdened young people living in their parents’ basements. If only some smart pol would think of an excise tax on the endowments and use it to pay off those debts. Where are you, Senator Warren? Student Debt relief would be an excellent starting point for the Republicans to begin their post-Trump rehabilitation program. It can’t get done within the Republican caucus. Is it too much to ask for maybe forging a middle ground with bipartisan support?

We’ve gone from making immigration a bad word, to recognizing that peoples have immigrated since the beginning of humankind and maybe the developed nations, including ours, need to be smarter about it. Seems like the term “Border Security” is becoming acceptable across the political spectrum. We can hope. Between hearings and paybacks, border security would be yet another place that a Republican majority in the house could distinguish themselves as actually having an agenda.

WISDOM

The future is what we make it and make of it.

The great Alexis de Tocqueville said, “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years.”

And President John Kennedy, “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.”

So, it’s up to us to demand better behavior from those we elect and from those that report to us. The answer isn’t going to be in political party A or political party Z or any political party. Time for all to be fiercely non-partisan.

Onward.